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Forecasting FIB levels with real-time environmental conditions
Charles River Water Quality Model - Swimming Prototype

A wireless data logger with meteorologic and hydrologic sensing capabilities was installed on the Charles River near Community Boating. The data from this station, combined with flow data from the USGS Waltham river flow gauge, is used to model Fecal Indicator Bacteria (FIB) concentrations in the water. The following predicted FIB concentrations are based on this model and are updated hourly to show real-time water conditions. Flag colors are based on safety thresholds for swimming. This page is a prototype for the automation of the Charles River Watershed Association's water quality notification program. Click here for a full description of this bacteria forecasting project.

Project team: Ben Wetherill (Marine Science Master's Degree Candidate, UMass Boston), Julie Wood (Environmental Scientist, CRWA), Francesco Peri (Research Associate, UMass Boston).

Water quality flags, with forecasted E.coli concentrations and probabilities (updated hourly):
As of: 12/31/69 19:59 Modeled Concentration Probability of Exceedance Flag
Upper Section
   N. Beacon - BU Bridge 0 cfu0% Blue (safe for swimming)

Model formulas:

Upper Section logistic model

ln(p/(1-p)) = -9.96 + 0.46*ln(RainD2+0.0001) + 0.54*WtmpD1

p = probability of exceeding safety threshold;

RainD2 = Previous 48hr total rainfall; WtmpD1 = previous 24hr average water temp

Data Logger Photos: